China LASIK Forcast 2013 - 2023

Forecast of Laser Refract ive Surgery in China: 2013 -2023

Eyes with treatable refractive errors in Equation 1 includes all refractive ranges (myopia, hyperopia and mixed astigmatism). The U.S. patient pool calculates to 28.3 million people, or 56.6 million eyes. Notably, approximately 9.0% (28.3/310) of the current U.S. population of 310 million comprises the potential candidate pool. Accordingly, to date approximately 10 million U.S. citizens or 1/3 of the potential U.S. candidate pool has had laser refractive surgery. Historically, LASIK started in the U.S. in 1996 and quickly grew to reach a peak market penetration of 2.7% in 2000, declining to a current market penetration of 1.2%. The current rate is likely influenced by the economic downturn of 2008, as Figure 1 suggests. In 2012 approximately 700,000 eyes were treated in the United States, or 1.2% of the potential candidate pool. In 2008, approximately 1.5 million eyes were treated — 2.7% of the potential candidate pool. The former rate (1.2%) is interpreted as the baseline market, and the latter (2.7%) as the likely penetration level at market maturity. Laser refractive surgery volumes in the United States have fluctuated based on several factors. Several authors have observed that laser refractive surgery procedure volume correlates with consumer confidence vii . Other factors impacting surgical volume include reports of surgical complications viii , market fragmentation, price variation and the introduction of the Warfighter Act which declared glasses-free vision as a condition of combat readiness for the U.S. Armed forces, and led to laser refractive surgery being performed in military centers and led to an overall increase in volume of approximately 150,000 procedures per year.

REFRACTIVE SURGERY VOLUME

Figure 1: Laser refractive surgery volumes in the United States grew steadily to peak in 2000 at about 1.5 million procedures (eyes). Volume declined during the economic downturn that began in Q4 2001 and rebounded slightly from 2003 through 2007. The U.S. market has not recovered following the macroeconomic downturn of 2008. It stood at approximately 700,000 procedures in 2012. Source: Adapted from Marketscope, using additional data from the SurgiVision® DataLink Registry.

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