China LASIK Forcast 2013 - 2023

Forecast of Laser Refract ive Surgery in China: 2013 -2023

 Financial challenges to providing surgeons with new capital equipment as technology improvements are released (technology cycle management);

 Reliance on continued improvement in the overall living standards and the educational levels;

 The need for loosening of government restrictions on advertising of medical procedures;

 Inadequate government support of Private Centers offering laser refractive surgery; and

 Reliance on the growth and increased acceptance of consumer credit markets.

Any reasonable forecast of China’s LASIK market must consider these factors, as is described next.

Determination of Market Baseline and Saturat ion Levels

The model for potential market growth is based on the observation that the laser refractive surgery market in the United States demonstrated saturation at approximately 2.7% penetration, and showed a baseline volume at approximately 1.2% penetration, as detailed below.

In this context, market penetration is defined as annual procedure volume compared to the potential candidate pool. The potential candidate pool is calculated as:

Potential U.S. Candidate Pool

=

Overall Population (310 Million People)

x

Patients in Treatable Age Group of 18 to 45 Years (36.5%)

x

Patients with Treatable Refractive Errors (50%)

x

Patients with Adequate Disposable Income (50%)

EQUATION 1: General estimate of United States candidate pool for laser refractive surgery. The result calculates to 28.3 million people.

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